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Hundreds of billions of dollars of AI-infrastructure debt might need re-analysis after surprise release of open-weights (free-to-use) model Kimi K3
This top-tier model being made freely available to use changes the “stories” we use about how the future will unfold for AI providers
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Investment banks raise over $30 billion last week – as deregulation gives us bigger banks
Banks lock in over $30 billion in bond sales this week – as deregulation drives growing balance sheets.
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$50 billion committed bank financing for PayPal bid – one of the biggest M&A financing commitments ever
Stripe and private equity firm Advent secured $50 billion in committed bank financing for their joint bid for PayPal.
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The Iran war is a wildcard – issuers and investors might want to de-risk
It is difficult to predict the outcome of this complex situation. For credit issuers and investors, this outcome is outside their control and their credit underwriting…
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AI credit keeps printing – risks are demand saturation, concentration, and unknown unknowns of a new paradigm
There are questions about concentration and correlation risk. AI-related companies are clearly using the money for something that adds value to the economy – but the…
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Weaker than expected payrolls figures slightly change the rates markets’ expectation
June non-farm payrolls were 57,000, which was lower than expectations. This slightly changes the consensus, which was that the economy was doing very well and inflation…
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Credit markets might be too positive – possibly good window for issuers and investors
Credit markets might be too positive with spreads close to 25-year lows. Might be a good opportunity for issuers and investors.
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Watch for strong issuance in June ahead of summer holidays
Many issuers may issue in June – ahead of European and then US summer quiet periods. This effect may be amplified this year.
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Ultra-high hyperscaler credit issuance could saturate global credit markets
The hyperscalers project around $750 billion of capex for 2026 as AI infrastructure race gathers steam. Other credit issuers should plan for the risk of crowding…
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The Fed might actively raise long term rates instead of raising the Fed funds rate
For credit issuers and investors – evaluate locking in medium/long-term rates now
Markets
Syndicated loans
Broadly syndicated loans, buyout financing, and liability management. We follow underwriting decisions, pricing and documentation. For arrangers, institutional loan investors and CLO managers assessing supply, structure and terms.