Syndicated loans
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The Iran war is a wildcard – issuers and investors might want to de-risk
It is difficult to predict the outcome of this complex situation. For credit issuers and investors, this outcome is outside their control and their credit underwriting…
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AI credit keeps printing – risks are demand saturation, concentration, and unknown unknowns of a new paradigm
There are questions about concentration and correlation risk. AI-related companies are clearly using the money for something that adds value to the economy – but the…
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Weaker than expected payrolls figures slightly change the rates markets’ expectation
June non-farm payrolls were 57,000, which was lower than expectations. This slightly changes the consensus, which was that the economy was doing very well and inflation…
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Credit markets might be too positive – possibly good window for issuers and investors
Credit markets might be too positive with spreads close to 25-year lows. Might be a good opportunity for issuers and investors.
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Watch for strong issuance in June ahead of summer holidays
Many issuers may issue in June – ahead of European and then US summer quiet periods. This effect may be amplified this year.
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Ultra-high hyperscaler credit issuance could saturate global credit markets
The hyperscalers project around $750 billion of capex for 2026 as AI infrastructure race gathers steam. Other credit issuers should plan for the risk of crowding…
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The Fed might actively raise long term rates instead of raising the Fed funds rate
For credit issuers and investors – evaluate locking in medium/long-term rates now
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Goldilocks credit markets – as high rates create strong demand without widespread credit fears
High interest rates are creating excellent credit markets for issuers and investors.
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US economy doing well – high ISM raises the chances of higher rates
Data from surveys from industry (like this PMI Manufacturer’s survey) and employment data has held up well, while inflation is increasing. This combination increases the odds…
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Warner Bros raises $15 billion in largest term loan B deal since 2007
Warner Bros. Discovery raised tha largest term loan B since 2007 – and the second largest of all time. Strong market demand – it was 2x…