-
Retail private credit funds gate redemptions again – adverse selection risk from selling the best assets first
There is a risk that some funds will sell their best, most liquid assets first, leaving behind a deteriorating credit quality portfolio. As investors will be…
-
AI credit keeps printing – risks are demand saturation, concentration, and unknown unknowns of a new paradigm
There are questions about concentration and correlation risk. AI-related companies are clearly using the money for something that adds value to the economy – but the…
-
HSBC pulls back from private credit. Reduced back-leverage will change the nature of the private credit industry for LPs, GPs and issuers
Lower back-leverage means lower returns in good markets and lower performance fees. The big implications: i) private credit spreads offered to issuers increase; ii) the captive…
-
Weaker than expected payrolls figures slightly change the rates markets’ expectation
June non-farm payrolls were 57,000, which was lower than expectations. This slightly changes the consensus, which was that the economy was doing very well and inflation…
-
Synthetic risk transfer trades spreading – Singapore’s largest bank DBS does first Singapore SRT at US$1 billion.
Synthetic risk transfer (SRT) trades have grown rapidly in Europe and the US. They are now expanding in other regions.
-
Credit markets might be too positive – possibly good window for issuers and investors
Credit markets might be too positive with spreads close to 25-year lows. Might be a good opportunity for issuers and investors.
-
Watch for strong issuance in June ahead of summer holidays
Many issuers may issue in June – ahead of European and then US summer quiet periods. This effect may be amplified this year.
-
Ultra-high hyperscaler credit issuance could saturate global credit markets
The hyperscalers project around $750 billion of capex for 2026 as AI infrastructure race gathers steam. Other credit issuers should plan for the risk of crowding…
-
The Fed might actively raise long term rates instead of raising the Fed funds rate
For credit issuers and investors – evaluate locking in medium/long-term rates now
-
Goldilocks credit markets – as high rates create strong demand without widespread credit fears
High interest rates are creating excellent credit markets for issuers and investors.
Markets
Private credit
Direct lending, opportunistic credit, asset-based finance, and the capital formation behind them – evergreen vehicles, insurance balance sheets, retail access. We track fundraising and deal flow.